Yesterday's report closed at 0 out of 100. Today it's 85 out of 100 — a 85-point jump. Here's VilfinTV's full decode of the Daily Market Analysis & Sector Report for July 31, 2026.
The Headline Number: 85/100
| Score Range | Regime Label | What It Broadly Means |
|---|---|---|
| +50 to +100 | Bullish Expansion | (Today: 85) Broad-based strength — most signals agree, risk-taking is rewarded |
| +10 to +49 | Bullish Leaning / Neutral | Reasonably balanced, tilted positive — real opportunities exist but so do genuine cracks |
| -10 to +9 | Neutral / Mixed | No clear edge either direction — a coin-flip environment |
| -50 to -11 | Bearish Contraction | Defensive posture warranted — more signals turning negative than positive |
| -100 to -51 | Extremely Bearish / Risk-Off | Capital preservation mode — most "buy the dip" signals are unreliable here |
⚠️ Risk Alerts
- Momentum Warning: S&P 500 is trading below its 50-day moving average.
- Momentum Warning: Nikkei is trading below its 50-day moving average.
- Currency Volatility: USD/JPY dropped by 2.26%.
- Currency Volatility: EUR/JPY dropped by 1.74%.
What Actually Built Today's Score: 14 Factors
| Factor | What It Actually Showed | Points | Consider or Ignore? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Credit Spread (HY OAS) | ICE BofA US High Yield OAS 2.87% for 2026-07-29 (recent average 2.76%) — tight, healthy credit market | +15 | Consider |
| Volatility Term Structure | VIX 17.09 vs VIX3M 19.50 (ratio 0.88) — contango, calm | +15 | Consider (was +5 last time) |
| VIX (Fear Index) | 17.09, below its 20-day average (17.23) — in the 16-20 calm zone | +10 | Consider (was -20 last time) |
| Yield Curve — 30Y vs 10Y | 30Y 5.21% − 10Y 4.66% = +0.55% spread | +10 | Consider |
| Risk Appetite | Gold +3.34% (risk-off), Copper +3.63% (risk-on), S&P +1.66% (risk-on) — 2 of 3 signals agreed | +10 | Consider (was -10 last time) |
| Labor Market (Jobless Claims) | 197,000 claims for the week of 2026-07-25 vs 212,625 recent average | +10 | Consider |
| Liquidity & Financial Conditions | Chicago Fed NFCI -0.554 for the week of 2026-07-24 — looser than average | +10 | Consider |
| Dollar Strength | DXY 99.97 vs its 20-day average 100.99 | +10 | Consider (was +0 last time) |
| Growth vs Defensive Leadership | Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +0.70% vs Staples (XLP) -2.16% (+2.86pp gap) — sector-rotation proxy, not an earnings/EPS figure | +10 | Consider (was -10 last time) |
| Yield Curve — 10Y vs 3-Month | 10Y 4.66% − 3-month 3.67% = +0.99% (not inverted) | +5 | Consider with caution |
| Credit Stress | HYG +0.29%, IEF +0.04% same day — no stress pattern | 0 | Ignore for now — neutral reading |
| Commodities Ratio (Copper vs Gold) | Copper +3.63% vs Gold +3.34% (+0.29pp gap) | 0 | Ignore for now — neutral reading (was -10 last time) |
| Equity Momentum | S&P 500 below 50-day (-10), Nikkei below 50-day (-10), Nifty 50 above both MAs (+10) | -10 | Weigh lightly (was -15 last time) |
| Equal-Weight Participation (Proxy) | Equal-weight S&P (RSP) -0.16% vs cap-weight (SPY) +1.68% (-1.84pp gap) — proxy for breadth, not a true advance/decline reading | -10 | Weigh lightly (was +10 last time) |
The single biggest mover today: VIX (Fear Index), which shifted +30 points from yesterday. Nearly everything else in the table below moved little or not at all — check the "was X yesterday" notes for the full picture.
Where the Report Says to Look: Region & Sectors
Regional pick: Asian Equities. 9 out of 15 Asian indices are trading above their 50-day moving average, led by Philippines PSEi (+5.72% above MA). Eastern markets are currently outperforming the West.
Momentum sector: Energy. This sector currently shows the strongest relative momentum among tracked sectors, trading 4.31% above its 50-day average and an explosive +30.94% YTD return. | Value sector: Metals & Mining. Accumulating value, trading -8.36% relative to its 50-day MA and -5.15% YTD. | Long-term pick: Semiconductor
Trending Picks: What's Moving Right Now
| Asset Class | Pick |
|---|---|
| Equity | Energy (+3.48% above 20-Day MA, Up +0.53% latest session) |
| Commodity | Corn (+4.88% above 20-Day MA, Up +4.34% latest session) |
| Bond | Intl Treasury Bonds (IGOV) (+1.03% above 20-Day MA, Up +1.16% latest session) |
| Currency | NZD/USD (+1.64% above 20-Day MA, Up +1.36% latest session) |
Quality Picks: What's Been Consistent
| Asset Class | Pick |
|---|---|
| Equity | Energy (positive across 5/5 tracked timeframes) |
| Commodity | Copper (positive across 5/5 tracked timeframes) |
| Bond | Intl Treasury Bonds (IGOV) (positive across 4/5 tracked timeframes) |
| Currency | USD/ARS (Argentine Peso) (positive across 4/5 tracked timeframes) |
Notable Currency Mover
EUR/JPY (-1.74% today)
⚠️ Do your own homework first. Everything above is a data-driven starting point, not a finish line. Verify the numbers yourself and size any position to your own risk tolerance before acting on any pick in this report.
How to Actually Act on This
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- For broader global market access: Interactive Brokers.
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Conclusion
Today's 85/100 sits in the "Bullish Expansion" band. As always, the headline number is a summary, not a substitute for reading which specific factors actually moved — that's what the table above is for.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.