Yesterday's report closed at 95 out of 100. Today it's 75 out of 100 — a 20-point drop. Here's VilfinTV's full decode of the Daily Market Analysis & Sector Report for August 13, 2026.
The Headline Number: 75/100
| Score Range | Regime Label | What It Broadly Means |
|---|---|---|
| +50 to +100 | Bullish Expansion | (Today: 75) Broad-based strength — most signals agree, risk-taking is rewarded |
| +10 to +49 | Bullish Leaning / Neutral | Reasonably balanced, tilted positive — real opportunities exist but so do genuine cracks |
| -10 to +9 | Neutral / Mixed | No clear edge either direction — a coin-flip environment |
| -50 to -11 | Bearish Contraction | Defensive posture warranted — more signals turning negative than positive |
| -100 to -51 | Extremely Bearish / Risk-Off | Capital preservation mode — most "buy the dip" signals are unreliable here |
⚠️ Risk Alerts
- Momentum Warning: Nikkei is trading below its 50-day moving average.
- Currency Volatility: USD/BRL (Brazilian Real) surged by 1.65%.
What Actually Built Today's Score: 14 Factors
| Factor | What It Actually Showed | Points | Consider or Ignore? |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIX (Fear Index) | 14.55, below its 20-day average (16.94) — calm (<16) | +20 | Consider |
| Credit Spread (HY OAS) | ICE BofA US High Yield OAS 2.72% for 2026-08-11 (recent average 2.76%) — tight, healthy credit market | +15 | Consider |
| Volatility Term Structure | VIX 14.55 vs VIX3M 18.53 (ratio 0.79) — contango, calm | +15 | Consider |
| Yield Curve — 30Y vs 10Y | 30Y 5.25% − 10Y 4.68% = +0.57% spread | +10 | Consider |
| Equity Momentum | S&P 500 above both MAs (+10), Nikkei below 50-day (-10), Nifty 50 above both MAs (+10) | +10 | Consider |
| Labor Market (Jobless Claims) | 199,000 claims for the week of 2026-08-01 vs 209,000 recent average | +10 | Consider |
| Liquidity & Financial Conditions | Chicago Fed NFCI -0.549 for the week of 2026-08-07 — looser than average | +10 | Consider |
| Dollar Strength | DXY 99.99 vs its 20-day average 100.53 | +10 | Consider |
| Yield Curve — 10Y vs 3-Month | 10Y 4.68% − 3-month 3.71% = +0.98% (not inverted) | +5 | Consider with caution |
| Credit Stress | HYG +0.13%, IEF +0.10% same day — no stress pattern | 0 | Ignore for now — neutral reading |
| Equal-Weight Participation (Proxy) | Equal-weight S&P (RSP) +0.18% vs cap-weight (SPY) +0.25% (-0.07pp gap) — proxy for breadth, not a true advance/decline reading | 0 | Ignore for now — neutral reading (was +10 last time) |
| Risk Appetite | Gold +1.77% (risk-off), Copper -0.03% (risk-off), S&P +0.26% (risk-on) — 1 of 3 signals agreed | -10 | Weigh lightly |
| Growth vs Defensive Leadership | Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -1.13% vs Staples (XLP) +0.46% (-1.59pp gap) — sector-rotation proxy, not an earnings/EPS figure | -10 | Weigh lightly (was +0 last time) |
| Commodities Ratio (Copper vs Gold) | Copper -0.03% vs Gold +1.77% (-1.80pp gap) | -10 | Weigh lightly |
The single biggest mover today: Equal-Weight Participation (Proxy), which shifted -10 points from yesterday. Nearly everything else in the table below moved little or not at all — check the "was X yesterday" notes for the full picture.
Where the Report Says to Look: Region & Sectors
Regional pick: US Equities. 6 out of 6 tracked US indices are in a confirmed uptrend, led by US Total Market (VTI) (+3.41% above MA). US markets show strong relative strength with an average premium of 2.69% over their 50-day trendlines.
Momentum sector: Semiconductor. This sector currently shows the strongest relative momentum among tracked sectors, trading 1.44% below its 50-day average and an explosive +56.66% YTD return. | Value sector: Industrials. Accumulating value, trading 3.06% relative to its 50-day MA and 18.28% YTD. | Long-term pick: Semiconductor
Trending Picks: What's Moving Right Now
| Asset Class | Pick |
|---|---|
| Equity | Space (+9.11% above 20-Day MA, Up +0.81% latest session) |
| Commodity | Corn (+7.05% above 20-Day MA, Up +10.13% latest session) |
| Bond | High Yield (HYG) (+0.45% above 20-Day MA, Up +0.13% latest session) |
| Currency | USD/BRL (Brazilian Real) (+1.58% above 20-Day MA, Up +1.65% latest session) |
Quality Picks: What's Been Consistent
| Asset Class | Pick |
|---|---|
| Equity | Technology (Information Technology) (positive across 5/5 tracked timeframes) |
| Commodity | Gold (positive across 5/5 tracked timeframes) |
| Bond | High Yield (HYG) (positive across 5/5 tracked timeframes) |
| Currency | USD/BRL (Brazilian Real) (positive across 4/5 tracked timeframes) |
Notable Currency Mover
USD/BRL (Brazilian Real) (+1.65% today)
⚠️ Do your own homework first. Everything above is a data-driven starting point, not a finish line. Verify the numbers yourself and size any position to your own risk tolerance before acting on any pick in this report.
How to Actually Act on This
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Conclusion
Today's 75/100 sits in the "Bullish Expansion" band. As always, the headline number is a summary, not a substitute for reading which specific factors actually moved — that's what the table above is for.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.